Model Output (Actual & Forecast)

Summary model output for the republic is presented. Six financial quarters of model generated (real-world stimulus expenditure1) fiscal balance, plus one model forecast based on a range of percentage increases to the preceding stimulus quantity amount. Read the disclaimer.

Forecast

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Government total expenditures [W068RCQ027SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W068RCQ027SBEA, November 8, 2019.

Monetary System

The monetary system model is actually a computational (agent-based) interpretation of ModelSIM - the simplest sectoral balances model with government money - created by the late, great, Wynne Godley and Marc Lavoie (G&L). ModelSIM and other more sophisticated models are described in their book, 'Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth'.

Agent-based models must expedite:

  • Integration of economic time-series aggregates.
  • Display path dependence, in that exogenous variables become endogenous variables.

Models will solve computationally; not as systems of equations. Models must remain consistent with stock-flow accounting. Sectoral agents (best described as partially understood metaphors) are bound by monetary system stocks and flows.

Framework misunderstanding and agent-based model errors are the developer's responsibility alone.

Model AccountingModel Public Code & Full Description
ModelSIM AccountingModel Public Code

Opening Experiments

Opening experiments help us understand monetary circuit stock-flow dynamics.

Visualisation
ModelSIM Experiments Visualisation